Family visits the Royal B.C. Museum as it reopens after pandemic closure, July 7, 2020. B.C.’s economic forecasts depend on how quickly business and customers have confidence to recover activities and spending. (B.C. government)

Family visits the Royal B.C. Museum as it reopens after pandemic closure, July 7, 2020. B.C.’s economic forecasts depend on how quickly business and customers have confidence to recover activities and spending. (B.C. government)

B.C.’s COVID-19 deficit could go deeper than $12.5 billion

Scenarios suggest $15 billion or ‘more optimistic’ $10 billion

The B.C. government’s deficit due to coronavirus economic effects has been estimated at $12.5 billion, but it could be 20 or even 30 per cent per cent worse than that, Moody’s Investor Services calculates.

Moody’s issued an update July 20 after B.C. Finance Minister Carole James released the province’s economic outlook, with a mid-range scenario for steep decline and recovery in 2021. This “base case” scenario of a deficit equal to 23 per cent of provincial revenue is “credit negative” but does not affect B.C.’s “AAA stable” credit rating, Moody’s said in a statement.

The $12.5 billion deficit is the middle of three projections, along with a “less optimistic” and “more optimistic” outlook, depending on how the COVID-19 pandemic persists and how well business and employment adapt and recover.

“In addition to its main economic and fiscal scenario, the province presented two alternative scenarios for faster or slower economic recovery,” Moody’s said. “Although the province does not present an estimate of the fiscal effects of its alternative scenarios, we forecast that they could result in a 20-30 per cent improvement or deterioration relative to the projected $12.5 billion 2020-21 deficit.”

Using the more cautious 20 per cent estimate, the “less optimistic” scenario yields a one-year deficit of $15 billion, while the “more optimistic” deficit would be $10 billion.

The massive deficits triggered by COVID-19 have hit credit ratings. In March, Moody’s downgraded Alberta’s credit rating for the second time in four months, from AA to AA Low on the petroleum-dependent province’s long-term debt.

And in June, Fitch Ratings downgraded Canada’s credit rating from AAA to AA+, with Canada’s expected deficit leading industrialized countries at $343 billion and its overall debt set to reach the $1 trillion mark.

RELATED: B.C.’s potential deficit $12.5B as spending soars

RELATED: $343 billion deficit seen in Canada fiscal ‘snapshot’

B.C. has changed its balanced budget legislation to permit three years of deficits, and Moody’s notes that the Bank of Canada commitment to keep interest rates a historic lows will ease the burden of beginning to repay the fast-accumulating debt.

B.C.’s “base case” economic scenario projects a 36.4 per cent drop in corporate profits compared to the February 2020 budget, a 15.9 per cent drop in retail sales and a 27.6 per cent decline in housing sales. All are key tax revenue sources for the province.

Under the “less optimistic” scenario, corporate profits drop 45.3 per cent, retail sales would be down 19.6 per cent and housing sales would be down 36.2 per cent. The “more optimistic” scenario is a 25.6 per cent drop in corporate profits, 9.6 per cent lower retail sales and 14 per cent lower housing sales.

“If local and global health conditions worsen significantly, households and businesses may remain cautious in their decisions for longer, and international trade may be further disrupted,” the finance ministry said in its July 14 economic and fiscal scenario document.


@tomfletcherbc
tfletcher@blackpress.ca

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

BC legislatureCoronavirus

Get local stories you won't find anywhere else right to your inbox.
Sign up here

Just Posted

Kelly and Mila Bradley attended a drive-by volunteer event for Coralee Oakes before the 2020 election. The third-term B.C. Liberal MLA was named to two opposition critic roles Monday, Nov. 30. (Submitted Photo)
Coralee Oakes named as post-secondary critic in B.C. Liberals’ Cabinet

The Cariboo North MLA was also named the sports critic on Nov. 30

The Billy Barker Casino team went 1-1 in the last two weeks, and continue to lead the standings of the Quesnel Curling Sponsor League.(Cassidy Dankochik Photo - Quesnel Cariboo Observer)
Quesnel Sponsor League Curling: First blemish for Billy Barker

The team representing the casino and hotel is no longer undefeated but stays at the top of the table

The Cariboo Regional District has launched a broadband survey for residents, businesses and organizations. (Monica Lamb-Yorski Photo - Williams Lake Tribune)
Cariboo Regional District launches broadband connectivity survey

Paper copies of the survey will be available beginning Dec. 2

Forestry Ink columnist Jim Hilton. (File Photo)
FORESTRY INK: Responsible use of herbicides

Columnist Jim Hilton writes about the issue of spraying herbicides like glyphosate

This screenshot from the City of Quesnel website shows where paving took place during the 2020 season. (City of Quesnel website)
City of Quesnel completed overlay paving at five sites in 2020

The season’s work was completed within a budget of $375,000

A B.C. Ambulance Service paramedic wearing a face mask to curb the spread of COVID-19 moves a stretcher outside an ambulance at Royal Columbia Hospital, in New Westminster, B.C., on Sunday, November 29, 2020. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck
B.C. records deadliest weekend of COVID-19 pandemic with 46 deaths; more than 2,300 cases

Provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry provides COVID-19 update

Kettle bells sit aligned in an indoor fitness studio. (PIxabay.com)
1 COVID-19 case at a B.C. fitness studio leads to 104 more infections, 6 school exposures

According to case data released by Fraser Health, one case of the novel coronavirus carries a big impact

Vehicles drive past a display thanking essential workers in Burnaby, B.C. on Sunday, Nov. 29, 2020. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Marissa Tiel
B.C. changing COVID-19 case reporting as virus spread continues

Manual counting takes more time, leads to errors

Black Press Media and BraveFace have come together to support children facing life-threatening conditions. Net proceeds from these washable, reusable, three-layer masks go to Make-A-Wish Foundation BC & Yukon.
Put on a BraveFace: Mask fundraiser helps make children’s wishes come true

From Black Press Media + BraveFace – adult, youth and kid masks support Make-A-Wish Foundation

Christy Jordan-Fenton is the co-author of the book Fatty Legs, which has been mentioned amid the controversy of an Abbotsford school assignment on residential schools.
Co-author of residential schools book condemns controversial Abbotsford class assignment

Children’s book mentioned amid controversy at W. A. Fraser Middle School

Kootenay East MLA Tom Shypitka takes over as energy and mines critic for the B.C. Liberal opposition. Kelowna-Lake Country MLA Norm Letnick (right) moves from health critic to assistant deputy speaker. (Hansard TV)
B.C. Liberals pick critics to take on Horgan’s NDP majority

Interim leader Shirley Bond takes seniors, long-term care

Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Chrystia Freeland listens to a question from a reporter on the phone during a news conference in Ottawa, Monday, Nov. 30, 2020. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld
Spending too little worse than spending too much, Freeland says as Canada’s deficit tops $381B

‘The risk of providing too little support now outweighs that of providing too much’

Still from a video surveillance camera of a man alleged to have stolen from several people at knife-point in Chilliwack (Rosedale) early on Nov. 28, 2020. (Facebook)
B.C. man defends his family against intruder, saves neighbour while wielding hockey stick

RCMP looking for footage that captures violent crime spree in Chilliwack

Jim Neufeld, 55, was last seen leaving his home in Penticton Jan. 21, 2009. (RCMP photo)
Human remains found off U.S. coast in 2009 identified as Penticton man

Jim Neufeld, 55, was last seen leaving his home in Penticton Jan. 21, 2009

Most Read